Many of our friends and family are understandably concerned about the risk of us riding our bicycles 25,000 miles around the world, so I took some time to figure out the numbers to describe our actual risk. TLDR: We aren’t worried, and neither should you be; we’re a little more likely than a car driver to be in a fatal crash, but the effect of the exercise on our overall health decreases our risk of dying from other diseases. Most importantly, the chance we’ll have a life-changing adventure is roughly 100%.
(Disclaimer: I’m basing this on US figures; cycling in some parts of the world will be safer than the US, and more dangerous in others, so I think it averages out.)
First, let’s talk about car safety to have a point of reference that most of you are familiar with. According to the US Dept. of Transportation, in 2014, there were 1.08 deaths for every 100 million miles driven in the US. For most of you who drive an average of 15,000 miles per year, that means that in the 2-year period we are gone, you will have a 0.03% chance of dying in a car crash. That’s about 1 chance in 3,000.
Cycling risk is a bit harder to estimate because there are no solid numbers on the number of miles cycled every day. But I found some statistics from 2005 showing somewhere between 3.7 and 12.6 deaths per 100 million miles cycled. It’s important to keep in mind that a sizable percentage of these cyclists were riding unsafely, without helmets, against traffic, without lights at night, etc. I have also read that experienced cyclists who ride with groups that promote safety practices (like AIDS/LifeCycle, which both Steve and I have ridden in) are up to 10 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident.
Let’s say it’s 5 per 100 million miles, though I’d say Steve and I will be much safer than average. That puts our risk at 0.13% over our planned 25,000 mile route. That’s about 1 chance in 800.
So, cycling is a bit more risky than driving your regular commute. But, regular exercise also dramatically decreases your chance of dying from health-related illnesses such as heart disease. According to these figures from the CDC, about 0.05% per year of people in my age group die from illnesses like heart disease, stroke, etc., all of which are reduced by regular exercise. That’s 0.10% over 2 years, or 1 chance in 1,000. (For Steve it’s actually higher because he’s a bit older.)
So the risk from cycling is comparable to the risk from diseases that are preventable by regularly exercising! We will obviously be taking every reasonable precaution, including lights, mirrors, reflectors, safe riding practices, etc.